Does Sikhism teach that events happen by coincidence or by providence?
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Everything happens according to the Hukam of Akal Purkh. i.e. the system according to which every thing is happening in this universe. Laws of nature are same for each and everyone.
ਹੁਕਮੈ ਅੰਦਰਿ ਸਭੁ ਕੋ ਬਾਹਰਿ ਹੁਕਮ ਨ ਕੋਇ ॥ Jap – 1
When we analyse large number of events, they can be random or coincidence. Large event follow the Statistical Distribution and are Gaussian in nature.